Is Donald Trump out of the contest ?

Will illness force Trump out of the race?

Uncertainty prevails in United States over presidential election. Donald Trump the Republican candidate is reported to be Covid-19 positive, his vital signs are concerning, though personal doctor is ruling out the concern, giving his health a clean status.

Let’s understand the presidential election process first.

Five stages of election, namely

1 Primaries and Caucuses.

This phase is already over. Unlike in India, where party selects their candidate, in US voting takes place at state level to select the candidate from respective parties. So every state selects its own candidate through their respective process.

2 National Convention. Next Public Debate is due on 12th October.

3 General Election due on 3rd of November  where voting takes place and now the final fight is between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

4 Electoral College.

5 Swearing –in Ceremony

Can presidential elections be delayed? Which is most unlikely.

So, what are the scenarios which arise due to Trump getting affected by Covid-19. To get the election delayed, the candidate replacement is to be sorted out. It’s not so easy, as it requires legal support of changes in legislation.

In US congress decides the date of election as per law. The elections are bound to held subjectively after every four years on first Tuesday after first Monday.

Hence forth, to delay Presidential election it requires strenuous, legal changes.

So what next........

As a constitutional hard deadline of the election, in case of delayed election, which is unlikely to happen speaker will be required to take over, once the term of president ends on 20th January, 2021 next year.

Let us explore the other possibility.

Preliminary exercises are already over i.e. Primaries and Caucuses and national convention are over

So, the next stage is General Election, which is supposed to take place on 3rd of November. Yes second round of national debate is due on 12th of October, which might be very crucial for Trump. As per constitutional experts, there is no possibility of president candidate replacement in US.

Therefore, if  Trump to withdraw now, the discretion conspicuously on the Republican Party to decide  who replaces him. Even though, the contest would between Joe Biden and the new replaced candidate. As per the sources, most likely candidate replacement would be current Vice President if Trump goes on to take unprecedented decision to withdraw from the race.

What if new candidate takes the election field?  Is the process so easy? Will it affect voting process? Will it affect Republican Party?

Since the primaries are over. So, if Trump withdraws now, it won’t be so easy for Republicans to select and nominate their candidate. This might dampen the faith of general US citizens over Republican Party.

So, what’s the new scenario of General Election? 3rd November, already fixed for general election in US, it is expected that millions of ballots already printed with Donald Trump as republican candidate. The question to reprint the ballot seems to be out of reach now. So, if Trump withdraws, we might end up with a possibility of ballot having names of Biden and Trump. Which seems to be very likely possibility.

What if presidential candidate dies before Electoral College i.e. before 14th December? Then the party need to coordinate with the electors, again to vote for the replacement. What if after 14th December? The Vice President to take over as president.

So, Covid-19 is projecting yet another dusky map in front of us.

Be Safe, Be Healthy